MTB Group Seminar Series: Real-time modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic - in the Philippines, Malaysia and Victoria (Australia)

Abstract

COVID-19 emerged in the WHO's Western Pacific Region (WHO-WPRO) and has been an unprecedented threat to human health. However, the experience of countries of the Region has been considerably different, with some successfully adopting an elimination strategy, while other countries have been severely affected. The Epidemiological Modelling Unit at the School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine has provided support to Malaysia and the Philippines throughout the pandemic period, and to the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services in Australia. These jurisdictions have been among the most severely affected regions in the Western Pacific and the epidemiology has often swung violently from good control to accelerating case rates and back again. In this context, models that are rapidly adaptable to changing epidemiological circumstances have been essential. During 2020, we further developed our computational platform for infectious disease modelling to enhance its reliability and adaptability, and to allow rapid presentation of outputs to policy makers. We also adopted new techniques for model calibration, given the need to re-calibrate up to twenty epidemiological simulations per week. To achieve this, we have integrated core principles of software development with epidemiological modelling

Link to the session: https://zoom.us/j/98082470621?pwd=NDZ1YnRPZGhHT3JRN3RNT3JHS1EwUT09