MTB Group Seminar Series: The Impact of Vaccination on the Evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

Abstract

First, we present an age-structured SEIR model that uses contact patterns to reflect the physical distance measures implemented in Portugal to control the COVID-19 pandemic. By using these matrices and proper estimates for the parameters in the model, we were able to ascertain the impact of mitigation strategies employed in the past. Results show that the March 2020 lockdown had an impact in the disease transmission, bringing the effective reproduction number (R(t)) below 1 ([2]).

In a second part, we use a simple model to analyze the impact of vaccination on the control of the pandemic. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19. 

[1] C. Caetano, M.L. Morgado, P. Patriıcio, J.F. Pereira and B. Nunes, Mathematical modelling of the impact of non-pharmacological strategies to control the COVID-19 epidemic in Portugal, Mathematics, 9, no 10 (2021) 1084.

[2] B Machado, L Antunes, C Caetano, J F Pereira, B Nunes, P Patricio, and M L Morgado, The Impact of Vaccination on the Evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal, Submitted (2021).

Link to the session: 
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/82128835685?pwd=L2VLZHFYZ1ZHdzFmR0VkUE9PM0RQQT09