The Lehendakari thanks the BCAM research staff who have worked on the mathematical modeling of COVID-19

The researchers of the Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM) have collaborated with the Department of Education, the Department of Health of the Basque Government and Osakidetza in modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 in the Basque Country.

The Lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, thanked in Vitoria-Gasteiz the work carried out by the research team of the Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM) that has been collaborating with the Department of Health and Osakidetza, since March 2020, in the mathematical modeling of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 within the working group BMFT - Basque Modelling Task Force COVID-19, promoted by the Department of Education and the Department of Health of the Basque Government. 

This international team of researchers from BCAM, the UPV/EHU and Ikerbasque has prepared periodic reports with predictions of various indicators of interest such as the number of hospitalizations, ICU admissions or number of infected people, for the Basque Autonomous Community and its main Integrated Health Organizations (OSIs) with the aim of providing the administrations with information for decision-making, as well as support in the day-to-day management of hospitals in the management of this health crisis.

Representing BCAM at the Lehendakari's appearance were the Scientific Director of the center, Jose Antonio Lozano (BCAM-UPV/EHU) and the researchers Dae-Jin Lee and Maíra Aguiar (BCAM-Ikerbasque), all of them part of the scientific team that has been working on the mathematical modeling of the pandemic. 

Mathematical modeling in biology, data science and artificial intelligence

Since the beginning of the health crisis caused by COVID-19 BCAM has made available to the administration its experience and knowledge in mathematical modeling in order to provide information and daily estimates on the evolution of the pandemic in the Basque Autonomous Community. Specifically, on the number of expected hospital admissions and, among them, those requiring ICU care.  

The COVID-19 working group is made up of experts in various disciplines such as Data Science, Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Modeling in Biology. Through epidemiological models (SIR and extensions), operational research and Gaussian processes, they have managed to describe the dynamics and impact of the pandemic, and have characterized the infection process of the disease and its evolution over time. The results have been validated with data on the incidence of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the ACBC, hospital admissions, ICU and mortality data provided by Osakidetza.

In addition, work continues on the evaluation of the effect of the containment measures carried out on the transmission of the disease with the aim of monitoring the impact of the progressive relaxation of the confinement measures.

Short and long term forecast report

BCAM has also made available on its website a prediction report on the evolution of COVID-19 in the Basque Country, which contemplates two different time horizons: a short-term one, up to June 5, and a long-term one, up to July 31. This report is periodically updated with data provided by Osakidetza.

The document gathers the prediction results of the three models developed by the research staff of BCAM, the UPV/EHU and Ikerbasque together with the health institutions of the Basque Country on different variables of interest such as the number of hospitalizations or deaths. These predictions can also be seen in interactive graphs published on the center's web page. 

About the Basque Center for Applied Mathematics - BCAM

The Basque Center for Applied Mathematics - BCAM is an international research center in the field of Applied Mathematics linked to the Ministry of Education of the Basque Government through the Vice-Ministry of Research and Universities. It was founded in 2008 by the Basque Government, the University of the Basque Country and Ikerbasque. It is also supported by the Provincial Council of Bizkaia and Innobasque. One of its main objectives is to put mathematics at the service of society through knowledge transfer, extending the results of its research to sectors such as biosciences, health, energy or advanced manufacturing, and working jointly with local and international institutions and companies.

It currently has a staff of more than 100 researchers of 25 nationalities working in diverse areas, from data science or computational mathematics to mathematical modeling. BCAM has been accredited twice in a row as a "Severo Ochoa" center of excellence by the State Research Agency, a distinction awarded to the best research institutions in the world in their field.

More information: www.bcamath.org

- COVID evolution prediction report in the Basque Country: https://bit.ly/2A9btJm

- This is what is being investigated by BCAM's scientific staff in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic: https://bit.ly/2M154m7

- Interactive graphics with the predictions made by the mathematical models developed at BCAM: https://bit.ly/3gxTs86

Contact: communication@bcamath.org

Phone: 647119180